Drawing a Theory Model
A more precise form of visual thinking is a theory model, which shows the elements or forces in a situation and the correlations among them. Each element in the theory represents something important in explaining a situation, and the links between elements (drawn as arrows) show how a change in the first element will result in a change in the second.
Each element in a theory has to be something that you can measure - even a subjective measurement will do. The important point is to state the element so that there can be more of it or less of it. Examples would include money, anger, intelligence, or health. This means that a person, a place or a thing cannot be an element in a theory model. But the number of people, the size of a place, or the temperature of something could be an element in a theory model.
A theory model shows how the elements of a situation fit together to explain how things behave in the situation. The arrows show how the elements affect each other by showing how an increase in one element is expected to result in an increase or decrease in another element. When you see an arrow in a system map, you know the arrow is saying “Other things being equal, an increase in the first element will be associated with an increase or decrease in the second element.” The expected increase or decrease is shown by a + or - sign.
When an increase in the first element causes an increase in the second (+), they move in the same direction, meaning that a decrease in the first will be followed by a decrease in the second. Similarly, when an increase in the first results in a decrease in the second (-), they move in the opposite direction, so that a decrease in the first results in an increase in the second. It is easiest to read a theory by remembering that a (+) on the arrow means “moves the same way” and a (-) means “moves in the opposite way. An example is shown below. As the hours of studying increases, grades increase. But as the time spent studying increases, the amount of stress increases and the ability to study decreases.
A theory model, is your idea about how some aspect of the world around you works - what causes things to happen the way they do. It is a complex argument about the way things are - an essay in visual form. The types of questions that are best suited for a system map are such things as: “What explains the recent rise or fall in teen pregnancy?”, or “How does CO2 emission affect the ecology?”, or “How does stress affect me?”.
MindDraw’s ability to replay a drawing is especially useful for a theory model. When someone is in the process of constructing a theory, they can set it aside for a while, and then return to it later and begin by replaying the model and its thought process. When one person sends a theory model to another person, the recipient can replay the map and get a better sense of the logical progression that the drawer was using as she constructed it. In a sense, it lets the reader of the drawing follow along with the thinking of the theory maker.
MindDraw has a unique way of using color that is especially useful for theory models. You can select colors for each element and relation in a theory, as a way of showing your feelings about them. In this way, you are able to show your logical analysis of a situation as well as your emotional reaction to each aspect of it. Both logic and emotion are important aspects of your thinking. Combining logic and emotion in one drawing is a more complete form of thinking for you, as well as a more complete form of communication with others.
A good theory model will always have loops or cycles in it. A cycle is when the chain of relations from one element to another forms a closed loop. This is also called a feedback loop. For instance, if a sports team is winning, it will have more confidence. If it has more confidence, it will be better able to take advantage of “breaks” in a game. If it takes better advantage of those opportunities, it is more likely to win. If it wins again, the team will become more confident, and a feedback cycle is created. Anything in the social or biological world that endures over time has cycles within it. Cycles keep it in existence by reinforcing certain behaviors and penalizing others. Understanding the cycles of feedback relations in a theory model will give you a good insight into the dynamics of a situation, including how it is changing and how an action you take can have unexpected outcomes.
An example of a theory model by a Physician is shown below. In it, he explores what causes quality in health care. This is his own theory, which may or may not be true. In addition to discussing it with others who are concerned with quality in health care, he can test it to see if it is true. By carefully collecting data on the elements in his theory, he can test to see if the relations he has drawn actually occur in a typical healthcare setting
The Physician’s Theory shows that pressure to cut costs by reducing the time spent with patients may reduce the quality of health care. But it may also increase the cost of health care, as patients trust the physician less and “migrate” to other health care centers, seeking additional, unneeded second and third opinions. This kind of paradoxical result often occurs in complex social and technical systems. Drawing Theory Images is a helpful way to uncover these kinds of unintended feedback loops in a system and their consequences.
These examples have been very simple. Your own MindDraw drawing will be more complex, and MindDraw has features to help deal with the more complex ideas that you will develop. The arrow showing a relationship can be drawn as a broken arrow, to denote that the causal influence is delayed. Also, for each element in drawing, you can identify its current value and think through the implications of the other factors influencing it, showing what you expect the future trend of the element will be, both short and long term.
